Prediction Markets Hiring: The Talent Behind Kalshi-Style Exchanges

Kalshi-style prediction markets hire like regulated exchanges. The key roles, why surveillance is the hardest seat, where talent comes from and what it pays.

Sam Wellalage, Founder
October 30, 2026
9 min read

Prediction market exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket hire like regulated derivatives venues, not like sportsbooks. The roles that decide whether they succeed are market surveillance and compliance, exchange and clearing operations, low-latency engineering, liquidity and market-maker relationships, government relations and, increasingly, public-company-grade finance. The hardest seats to fill are the ones that sit closest to the regulator, because the rulebook for these markets is still being written while the volumes grow.

This guide explains what a prediction market exchange actually is in regulatory terms, who the sector is hiring in 2026, where the experienced people come from, what the public pay data shows, and how to run a senior search in a market this young.

What is a prediction market exchange, in regulatory terms?

In the US, the prediction markets that matter are federally regulated futures exchanges. They list event contracts, which pay out depending on whether something happens, and they are supervised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Kalshi set the template. On 4 November 2020 the CFTC announced that it had designated KalshiEX LLC as a designated contract market (DCM), having found that it could comply with the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's rules for exchanges.

Since then, the licence itself has become the prize:

Why is prediction markets hiring accelerating in 2026?

Because the money has arrived and the competition between venues is now about execution. Three signals stand out.

The leaders are hiring senior executives from outside the sector. In September 2026 Polymarket named Warren Jenson as its chief financial officer, reporting to founder and CEO Shayne Coplan. Jenson has previously been CFO of Amazon, Electronic Arts, Delta Air Lines and NBC, and president and CFO of Nielsen. Earlier in the year Polymarket hired Mukilan Ashok, previously global head of electronic trading engineering for credit at Citadel, as interim US CTO, according to eFinancialCareers.

Headcount is growing fast from a small base. The same eFinancialCareers report cites a since-closed Polymarket listing stating the company had 110 people at the start of 2026 and planned to reach 260 by year end. Kalshi's founders have put their own headcount at about 120. These are small teams running markets with very large volumes, which means each senior hire carries unusual weight.

Trading firms are building dedicated desks. Market makers are now hiring specifically for event contracts. DRW has advertised a prediction markets trader role, and other proprietary trading firms have reportedly set up desks, as summarised in this July 2026 analysis. Kalshi itself has been hiring traders for an affiliated entity that provides liquidity on the platform.

Which roles do prediction market exchanges hire for?

Strip out the branding and the org chart looks like a modern derivatives venue with a consumer front end. The senior roles that come up most often are:

  • Chief Compliance Officer and Chief Regulatory Officer. Owns the rulebook, market surveillance, investigations, disciplinary actions and the relationship with the CFTC.
  • Head of Market Surveillance. Builds the detection programme for manipulation and trading on material non-public information. In prediction markets this is a front-line commercial risk, not a back-office function.
  • Head of Exchange Operations or Market Operations. Runs the live market: listings, market control, settlement, incidents and participant onboarding.
  • Head of Clearing or DCO Chief Risk Officer. Where the group operates its own clearing house, someone has to own collateral, default management and clearing risk.
  • CTO and Head of Trading Systems Engineering. Matching engines, market data, low-latency infrastructure and, for crypto-native venues, on-chain settlement.
  • Head of Market Structure and Product. Contract design, settlement sources, fee and liquidity programmes, and the regulatory filings that come with new products.
  • Head of Liquidity or Market Maker Relationships. Recruits and manages the firms that quote the markets.
  • Head of Government Relations. Federal and state policy work, which in this sector is existential.
  • CFO. Increasingly a seasoned finance executive who can handle large fundraises and, potentially, a listing.

Why are compliance and surveillance the hardest seats to fill?

Because event contracts create insider-trading risks that most exchange compliance teams have never had to police, and the regulator has made clear that the exchange is expected to catch them.

On 25 February 2026 the CFTC's Division of Enforcement issued a prediction markets advisory after Kalshi disclosed two cases from its own surveillance. In one, a political candidate appeared to trade on his own candidacy. In the other, an editor connected to a YouTube channel traded markets on that channel's content. Kalshi fined and suspended both traders. The Division said the conduct potentially breached CFTC Rule 180.1 and reminded DCMs of their independent duty to maintain audit trails, conduct surveillance and enforce rules against prohibited practices.

The bar then rose again. On 22 September 2026 the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued a staff advisory on contracts tied to individual conduct, often called mention markets. Staff may treat these as presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation and expect exchanges to identify potential insiders and design surveillance, position limits and reporting to match.

Underneath both advisories sits a staffing obligation. CFTC rule 17 CFR 38.155 requires a DCM to have sufficient compliance staff and resources for audit trail review, trade practice and market surveillance, and real-time monitoring, and to review the size and workload of that team every year as volumes and products grow. Where the group runs a clearing house, 17 CFR 39.10 requires the DCO to designate a chief compliance officer who reports to the board or the senior officer.

How does the regulatory picture shape leadership hiring?

It makes regulatory judgement a board-level skill. Two live issues define the next few years.

  • Federal rules on which contracts can be listed. On 10 June 2026 the CFTC proposed amending Rule 40.11, replacing blanket prohibitions on certain event contracts with a contract-by-contract public interest review. According to Skadden's summary, the factors include threats to market integrity and whether a contract would strain the exchange's surveillance and compliance infrastructure. Comments closed on 27 July 2026. The proposal is in the Federal Register.
  • The fight with the states over sports contracts. In April 2026 a divided Third Circuit held that the Commodity Exchange Act likely preempts New Jersey's gambling laws as applied to sports event contracts on a DCM, affirming a preliminary injunction for Kalshi. Skadden notes that similar cases are pending in the Fourth, Sixth and Ninth Circuits.

This is why government relations has moved up the org chart. Kalshi opened a Washington office in early 2026 and appointed John Bivona, a former White House Liaison at the Department of Homeland Security, as its first head of federal government relations, as reported at the time. For an exchange whose product set depends on courts and a pending rulemaking, the policy lead is a revenue role.

Where does prediction market talent come from?

There is almost no one with ten years of prediction market experience, so every senior search is a cross-over search. The pools that work, and what to check in each:

  • Futures exchanges and clearing houses. The best source for compliance, surveillance, clearing risk and market operations. Check pace: can they work in a 120-person company where nothing is documented yet?
  • Market makers and proprietary trading firms. Strong on pricing, liquidity programmes, latency and trading technology. Check how they handle the switch from trading against the venue to running it, and any conflicts.
  • Sportsbook and betting exchange trading and integrity teams. They understand sports data, settlement disputes and integrity monitoring. Check their grasp of futures regulation, which is a different rulebook from gambling licensing.
  • Regulated crypto exchanges. Experienced in 24/7 operations, consumer onboarding at scale and, for on-chain venues, smart contract and wallet infrastructure. Check depth of exchange self-regulatory experience.
  • Regulators and enforcement lawyers. Valuable for the compliance and regulatory seats. Check post-employment restrictions and whether they have built teams, not just reviewed them.
  • Consumer technology. For growth, product and operations leadership, where the user base looks more like a fintech app than an institutional venue.

The strongest hires usually combine two of these, such as a futures exchange surveillance head who has also worked on sports integrity.

What do prediction market roles pay?

Public pay data is thin and mostly below executive level, but it gives useful reference points:

  • DRW's prediction markets trader listing quoted a base salary of $175,000 to $200,000 plus discretionary bonus, as reported by Bayes Group.
  • Kalshi has advertised trader roles at its affiliated liquidity entity on salaries of up to $250,000, according to eFinancialCareers.
  • DraftKings' Prediction Markets Manager role in New York listed $104,000 to $130,000 plus bonus and equity (Built In).

At executive level, the package is usually driven by equity rather than salary. That creates two practical issues. First, candidates from exchange groups, banks and trading firms often carry deferred bonuses and unvested stock, so an offer has to deal with buy-outs. Second, private valuations in this sector have moved sharply, so experienced candidates will ask hard questions about the price at which their equity is struck and what happens to it in a down round. Our salary guide sets out current ranges for exchange and trading roles.

How should a prediction market firm run an executive search?

Start by deciding which kind of company you are building. A venue that wants to be judged as financial market infrastructure needs leaders who will hold that line with regulators, courts and the press.

Then agree four things before approaching anyone:

  1. Which risk the hire is solving. Surveillance gaps, a pending licence, state litigation, a fundraise or a platform rebuild. Hire for the problem in front of you.
  2. Who the person reports to. A chief regulatory officer needs a direct line to the board or CEO and the authority to delist a contract or suspend a trader without a commercial veto.
  3. What the regulator will expect to see. Map the hire against the core principles and any conditions on your designation order, and talk to counsel about fitness reviews.
  4. What success looks like in 12 months. A surveillance programme that survives an exam, a clearing house approved, a new product category listed without an enforcement referral.

Design the interviews around real scenarios. Give a compliance candidate a mention market and ask how they would identify insiders and set position limits. Give an operations candidate a disputed settlement on a sports contract. Give a CTO a weekend outage during a major election night. Then take references from people on the other side of the table: market makers, regulators where appropriate, and former colleagues who worked under them.

What are the most common hiring mistakes in prediction markets?

  • Hiring for the brand, not the licence. Consumer growth talent is easy to find. Exchange compliance and clearing talent is not, and it is what keeps the business open.
  • Treating surveillance as a junior function. After the February and September 2026 advisories, the head of surveillance is one of the most important people in the company.
  • Underestimating the culture gap. Futures exchange veterans and crypto-native founders often work at very different speeds. Test for it explicitly.
  • Searching only inside the sector. The sector is too small. The right person is more likely running surveillance at a futures exchange or integrity at a sportsbook than working at a direct competitor.

Building the team

Spearpoint Search runs retained searches for exchanges, trading venues and the firms that supply their liquidity, from London and Dubai. We will tell you when a brief is really two jobs, when the compensation will not attract the people you need, and when a search does not yet have the conditions to succeed. See our exchanges and venues executive search practice and our work with market makers and proprietary trading firms, or read how we work with clients. If you are considering a move into prediction markets, start here.

For Sam's deeper take on whether Kalshi is a bookmaker or a new kind of financial venue, and what its hiring reveals, read The Truth About Kalshi and Prediction Markets in Talent Before Capital.

This article is for general information only and is not legal or regulatory advice. Regulatory proposals and litigation referred to here were current at the time of writing and may change.

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Frequently asked questions

What jobs are there in prediction markets?

The main senior roles are chief compliance or regulatory officer, head of market surveillance, head of exchange operations, clearing risk, CTO and trading systems engineering, market structure and product, liquidity and market maker relationships, government relations and finance. Market makers also hire traders and quants specifically for event contracts. Below executive level there are operations, onboarding, risk analyst and engineering roles at venues such as Kalshi, Polymarket and DraftKings.

Is Kalshi regulated?

Yes. The CFTC designated KalshiEX LLC as a contract market in November 2020, which means it operates as a federally regulated futures exchange and must meet the core principles that apply to designated contract markets, including surveillance, audit trail and rule enforcement obligations. Several US states dispute whether their gambling laws apply to its sports contracts, and that litigation is ongoing. This is not legal advice.

Why is compliance so important at a prediction market exchange?

Event contracts can be traded by people with inside knowledge of the outcome, such as candidates, staff or anyone who controls the event. In 2026 the CFTC issued advisories reminding exchanges of their independent duty to conduct surveillance and enforce their rules, and flagged contracts tied to individual conduct as presumptively susceptible to manipulation. The compliance and surveillance leaders are therefore central to whether a venue can keep listing products.

What do prediction market traders earn?

Public data is limited. DRW advertised a prediction markets trader role with a base salary of $175,000 to $200,000 plus discretionary bonus, and Kalshi has advertised trader roles at an affiliated liquidity entity on salaries of up to $250,000, according to eFinancialCareers. Senior executive packages at the venues are usually weighted towards equity rather than salary.

Where do prediction market exchanges find senior hires?

Mostly from adjacent sectors, because the industry is too young to have a deep bench. Common sources are futures exchanges and clearing houses, market makers and proprietary trading firms, sportsbook trading and integrity teams, regulated crypto exchanges, regulators and enforcement lawyers, and consumer technology companies for growth and product roles. The best candidates usually combine experience from two of these.

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